Typhoon Dolphin formed on 27 July 2026 over the western North Pacific and moved northwestward toward East China, ultimately making landfall over the coastal area between Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province on 9 August 2026. HKUST-V1 almost accurately forecast the high-probability region of Typhoon Dolphin's track 14 days before the formation with a 13 July 2026 initialization, delivering a total forecast of approximately 27 days from pre-formation to landfall. The observed Dolphin track and the high-probability region predicted by HKUST-V1 are similar, with the model successfully advancing the forecast trajectory from the western North Pacific toward East China, though HKUST-V1 shows a slightly southward pattern in its early initialization. However, with the 20 July 2026 initialization, the high-probability region accurately matched the observation, with the Dolphin track centered precisely on the high-probability region shown by HKUST-V1, demonstrating the model's remarkable predictive skill and long-lead forecasting capability.

Comparison of tropical cyclone track probabilities between the HKUST V1 model (shaded contours) and IBTrACS observational data (black line) for forecasts initialized on (a) 13 July 2026 and (b) 20 July 2026. Markers along the tracks indicate the cyclone's position. The shading represents the probability density of the predicted track from the HKUST V1 ensemble system