In April 2026, China's surface temperature is expected to exhibit a "Warm South, Cold North" pattern, with localized warming in the Northeast. Regions including the three Northeastern provinces and northern Inner Mongolia are projected to see temperatures more than 1°C above normal. The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and regions to its south will generally experience warmer conditions, with significant increases of over 1°C in southern South China, southern Jiangnan, and eastern Yunnan. Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, and Sichuan are expected to range from near-normal to slightly warm. Conversely, the North China to Huang-huai region will remain near-normal or slightly cooler. Notably, the Tibetan Plateau shows an extreme cold anomaly, with temperatures likely dropping more than 2°C below average, and over 4°C in some areas. Given these large temperature gradients, the North should prioritize defenses against crop frost from periodic cold air, while the South should monitor the impact of sustained warmth on spring pest and disease control.

Precipitation is expected to be generally high across China, characterized by a broad rain belt across the central-north and eastern regions. Most of Northern and Central China will see 20% to 80% more rainfall than usual. Specifically, western Inner Mongolia, southern Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, northern Ningxia, parts of Hunan, eastern Shanxi, and western Xinjiang may see increases exceeding 80%, potentially leading to frequent heavy rainfall events. Rainfall in the Huanghuai to Yangtze River basin is expected to be 20% to 40% above normal. In contrast, localized areas in Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, and Yunnan may see 20% less rainfall, while parts of Hainan and northeastern Xinjiang could face deficits of over 50%, indicating a high risk of meteorological drought.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific continue to rise, with emerging signals of El Niño development. Global surface temperatures are generally expected to be warmer than normal, with the most prominent warm anomalies occurring in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Temperatures along the Arctic coast, northern Eurasia, and the middle to high latitudes of North America are predicted to be significantly higher than normal, with local increases exceeding 5°C, indicating that the warming signal in these regions remains robust. In contrast, negative anomalies are expected across parts of Central to West Asia, localized areas of Northeast Asia, Northern Africa, and sections of the North Pacific, with local temperatures potentially 1–3°C below average.

In terms of precipitation, the global pattern exhibits distinct zonal and land-sea variations. Significant increases in rainfall are projected for southern Eurasia, Northern Africa, and the equatorial Central-Eastern Pacific, with local increases exceeding 80%. Conversely, the Maritime Continent, certain low-latitude regions of the Western Pacific, Northern to East-Central Australia, and parts of South America are expected to see reduced precipitation, with local deficits potentially exceeding 60%.

Using the PanLu2.0 Atmospheric River Identification and Tracking Algorithm developed by our team, April 2026 atmospheric river (AR) activity has been globally identified. Based on global distribution predictions, Southeast China, as well as the region spanning from the U.S. East Coast to Western Europe have a high probability of experiencing high-level atmospheric rivers in April. These forecasts exhibit strong consistency across model ensembles, particularly over Southeast China. This further elucidates the moisture sources contributing to the significantly above-normal precipitation previously predicted for the Huang-Huai region and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and regions to its south.

These forecasts are derived from the objective prediction methods of the SEPRESS team. The associated products represent scientific and technological outcomes intended for technical reference in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. They should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making. Further tracking and updated forecasts are strongly recommended.

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The above monthly TC outlook is based on the SEPRESS Global Climate Seamless Prediction System. SEPRESS, or Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environments, is a global initiative led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) that translates scientific advancements in weather-to-climate (or, subseasonal-to-seasonal) prediction into practical, tailored solutions to enhance global climate resilience and sustainability. The initiative, endorsed by UNESCO, aims to bridge the gap between science and society by fostering partnerships and delivering actionable outcomes to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The SEPRESS team comprises hydrometeorologists and modelers from the HKUST, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Beijing Normal University.

Text and Figures contributed by: QIAN Siyu, SONG Yurong, LIU Can