In July 2026, China's surface temperature will be characterized by an overall warm pattern with localized cooler areas. Temperatures in Heilongjiang, most of Jilin, eastern Inner Mongolia, southern Shandong, Jiangsu, northern Anhui, southeastern Henan, central-northern Hubei, western Chongqing, and localized areas of Sichuan will range from near-normal to lower than usual. Most other regions will experience temperatures ranging from near-normal to slightly warm, with northern Xinjiang, northern Tibet, northwestern Qinghai, most of Gansu, Ningxia, and southwestern Inner Mongolia seeing temperatures significantly higher by 1–2°C. Regarding precipitation, China is expected to see a regional coexistence of droughts and floods, with an overall distribution pattern of more in the northern and southern parts, and less in the central and southwestern regions. Most of western-central Xinjiang, northwestern Tibet, Heilongjiang, eastern Inner Mongolia, Jilin, and Liaoning, as well as localized areas of Jiangnan and South China, will see significantly more rainfall than normal, with parts of major regions like Heilongjiang, Chongqing, most of Hunan, and western-central Xinjiang facing surpluses of 20%–60%. In contrast, the remaining regions will see below-normal precipitation, with deficits reaching 20%–40% in central-western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, most of Gansu, most of Qinghai, northwestern Yunnan, and eastern Tibet, and up to 40%–80% in localized areas of northern Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, presenting a high risk of meteorological drought.

In July 2026, the overall forest and grassland fire danger rating across China is expected to be moderately high. Specifically, northern Yunnan, southeastern Tibet, northwestern Sichuan, southwestern Qinghai, and central Inner Mongolia face a high risk of forest and grassland fire danger.

Reference:

Pan, Y., Yang, J., Yao, Q., et al. (2024). How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales. Environmental Research Letters, 19, 044002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d3d.

Pan, Y., Yang, J., Lu, M., et al. (2025). Bridging the "Last-mile Gap" in Climate Services Delivery: A Dynamical-AI Hybrid Framework for Next-Month Wildfire Danger Prediction and Emergency Action. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-5091-4.

Predictions for Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones indicate that the anomaly distribution of cyclone frequency in July 2026 will display a prominent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Spatially, cyclone frequencies will be significantly above normal over the central Arctic Ocean, Barents–Kara Seas, eastern Canadian Archipelago, and the Bering Sea. Conversely, cyclone activities will be significantly below normal over the mid-latitude North Atlantic, Alaska, the North American continent, and mid-latitude regions of the Eurasian continent.

Forecasts for the Northeast Cold Vortex (NECV) indicate that the cold vortex activities over Northeast China will remain persistently active in July 2026. The north-central part of Northeast China and eastern Inner Mongolia are projected to be influenced by the cold vortex about 2 to 3 times, representing a surplus of approximately 40%–50% compared to the historical average; cold vortex activities over Liaoning and Shandong will also be significantly above normal, with surpluses reaching up to 90%. Overall, approximately 4 cold vortex processes are expected to affect China in July, a noticeable increase compared to the same period in normal years.

Global near-surface temperatures will be characterized by an overall warm pattern, with the most prominent warm anomalies occurring over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. Localized areas in northeastern Canada, the south-central United States, eastern and southern Africa, and southern Europe are expected to experience temperature increases of 2–4°C.

Global precipitation will exhibit significant spatial disparities, with significantly above-normal rainfall over the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, most of South America, and localized parts of northeastern Asia; conversely, the low-latitude western Pacific, the Maritime Continent, most of North America, western Asia, and most of Africa will see significantly below-normal precipitation.

Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts indicate that temperatures in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific will continue to develop robustly in July. Warm anomalies across the El Niño region will widely reach 1–2°C, with the core region exceeding 2°C. Concurrently, the North Atlantic will also exhibit significant warming characteristics.

The Niño 3.4 index outlook indicates that starting from July 2026, the index will persistently stay above +1.5°C, demonstrating that the tropical Pacific remains in a distinct El Niño state. Subsequently, the index will rise rapidly, entering a strong El Niño development stage from August to October 2026, and peaking around November 2026 with an ensemble mean close to 2.9°C. Most ensemble members are distributed between 2.6°C and 3.2°C, illustrating high model consistency regarding the occurrence of a strong El Niño event, though some uncertainties remain regarding peak intensity. Entering December 2026 and early 2027, the Niño 3.4 index will begin a gradual decline but will stay well above +1.5°C, maintaining a relatively strong El Niño event. After February–March 2027, the rate of decline will accelerate, signaling the decay stage of El Niño, though most ensemble members will still maintain a positive phase.

Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity predictions over the western North Pacific show that TC activity in July is expected to exhibit features of "active genesis, a northward-shifted path, and above-normal landings". Driven by large-scale circulation and SST anomalies, approximately 6 TCs are predicted to generate over the western North Pacific in July, representing a substantial surplus of 50.0% compared to the historical average. Concurrently, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which reflects the overall destructive potential of TCs, is expected to be 19.8% higher than normal. In terms of track probability, TC trajectories are expected to be more frequent over the East China Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the coastal regions of East China. Influenced by these frequent activities and the overall northward-shifted paths approaching the eastern offshore waters, approximately 2.57 TCs are expected to make landfall in China in July, with landing frequency exceeding the historical average by 12.4%.

Based on the self-developed atmospheric river identification and tracking algorithm PanLu 2.0, global atmospheric rivers (ARs) for July 2026 were extracted (Figure 12). According to the global frequency outlook, moderate-to-high-level atmospheric rivers are highly probable in the region stretching from Japan to Alaska and across the North Atlantic, showing strong consistency among the model ensembles.

Regarding global forest and grassland fire danger, in July 2026, parts of southeastern North America, Central America, northern South America, northeastern South America, southwestern South America, southeastern Europe, central Africa, southern Africa, central-southern South Asia, central East Asia, and eastern Southeast Asia are expected to face a high risk of fire danger.

These forecasts are derived from the objective prediction methods of the SEPRESS team. The associated products represent scientific and technological outcomes intended for technical reference in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. They should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making. Further tracking and updated forecasts from official agencies are strongly recommended.

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The above monthly TC outlook is based on the SEPRESS Global Climate Seamless Prediction System. SEPRESS, or Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environments, is a global initiative led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) that translates scientific advancements in weather-to-climate (or, subseasonal-to-seasonal) prediction into practical, tailored solutions to enhance global climate resilience and sustainability. The initiative, endorsed by UNESCO, aims to bridge the gap between science and society by fostering partnerships and delivering actionable outcomes to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The SEPRESS team comprises hydrometeorologists and modelers from the HKUST, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Beijing Normal University.

Text and Figures contributed by: QIAN Siyu, Dipendra LAMICHHANE, SONG Yurong, ZHOU Qinyao, LI Shentong, TANG Yao