1. China Near-Surface Air Temperature Forecast

In January 2026, near-surface temperatures in China are projected to exhibit a distinct "colder south, warmer north" anomaly pattern. Southeastern coastal and southwestern regions, including southern China, the eastern coastal areas, and Yunnan province, are expected to experience temperatures more than 1℃ below the climatology. Conversely, northern regions are likely to see 1-2℃ warming, particularly in northwestern Xinjiang and northern parts of the Tibetan Plateau, with the exception of localized areas in northeast China, which may remain slightly colder than usual. Frequent cold air outbreaks are anticipated to impact southern and southwestern China, underscoring the need for enhanced cold wave precautions and energy resource planning.

2. Global Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Forecast

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial eastern Pacific are forecasted to be 0.5-1℃ below average, signaling a strengthening La Niña phenomenon. Influenced by La Niña remote teleconnections and the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Southern Hemisphere will maintain a "positive-negative-positive" triple SST anomaly structure, with SSTs near the Antarctic coastal region remaining above average. La Niña has already played a role in shaping the colder-than-usual winter pattern in southern China, warranting continued monitoring of its intensity and subsequent global climate impacts.

3. Global Atmospheric Rivers Forecast

Using the PanLu2.0 Atmospheric River Identification and Tracking Algorithm developed by our team, January 2026 atmospheric river (AR) activity has been globally identified. Typical mid-to-high latitude AR pathways in the North Pacific, North Atlantic, and Southern Ocean remain highly active. Elevated AR frequencies are expected along pathways from Japan to the west coast of North America and from the eastern coast of North America to northern Europe. Regions such as the western coastal United States and coastal countries in northern Europe should remain vigilant for potential hazards, including intense precipitation or snowfall. Moving forward, monthly Atmospheric River forecasts will be integrated into our standard prediction portfolio.

The present results are derived from the objective prediction methods developed by the SEPRESS team. The related products are scientific and technical outcomes, which can serve only as technical references for disaster prevention and mitigation, and should not be regarded as decision-making bases. It is recommended to further monitor subsequent forecasts issued by relevant official agencies.

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The above monthly TC outlook is based on the SEPRESS Global Climate Seamless Prediction System. SEPRESS, or Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environments, is a global initiative led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) that translates scientific advancements in weather-to-climate (or, subseasonal-to-seasonal) prediction into practical, tailored solutions to enhance global climate resilience and sustainability. The initiative, endorsed by UNESCO, aims to bridge the gap between science and society by fostering partnerships and delivering actionable outcomes to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The SEPRESS team comprises hydrometeorologists and modelers from the HKUST, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Beijing Normal University.

Text and Figures contributed by: LIU Can, LI Shentong, LIU Anling, TANG Yao, SONG Yurong