In June 2026, China's surface temperature will be characterized by an overall warm pattern with localized cooler areas. Temperatures in northeastern Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, northwestern Gansu, and southeastern Tibet are expected to be significantly higher by 1–2°C, and in northern Xinjiang and localized areas of Tibet, the temperature increase can reach up to 4°C, while most of South China, most of Jiangnan, and the eastern part of Southwest China will range from near-normal to slightly warm. In contrast, Heilongjiang, eastern Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, most of Sichuan, southwestern Xinjiang, and western Tibet will experience temperatures ranging from near-normal to lower than usual. Regarding precipitation, China is expected to see a regional coexistence of droughts and floods, with an overall distribution pattern of more in the northwest and northeast, and less in the central and southwest regions. Most of Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, eastern Inner Mongolia, and localized coastal areas of South China will see significantly more rainfall than normal, with some areas could face surpluses of 40%–80%, and most of Xinjiang even exceeding 80%. In contrast, most of Tibet, western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, most of North China, and most of the Huanghuai and Jianghan regions will see below-normal precipitation, with deficits reaching 40%–80% in Tibet, localized areas of northern Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia, and northern Shaanxi, leading to a high risk of meteorological drought.

The overall forest and grassland fire danger rating across China is expected to be moderately high in June 2026. Among them, the forest and grassland fire danger ratings in western Yunnan, southeastern Tibet, eastern Guangxi, northeastern Guangdong, and northern Xinjiang are categorized as high risk.

Reference:

Pan, Y., Yang, J., Yao, Q., et al. (2024). How well do multi-fire danger rating indices represent China forest fire variations across multi-time scales. Environmental Research Letters, 19, 044002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad2d3d.

Pan, Y., Yang, J., Lu, M., et al. (2025). Bridging the "Last-mile Gap" in Climate Services Delivery: A Dynamical-Al Hybrid Framework for Next-Month Wildfire Danger Prediction and Emergency Action. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-5091-4.

Global near-surface temperatures will predominantly be warmer, especially in high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere and Antarctica where warm anomalies are most prominent, among which central and eastern North America, localized areas of Siberia, and central and southern Africa may see anomalies as high as 4–6°C. Global sea surface temperature forecasts indicate that the equatorial central-eastern Pacific will continue to warm in June, with warm anomalies in the El Niño region reaching 0.5–1°C, suggesting it will rapidly develop into a strong to super El Niño event during the summer. For this El Niño event, the team's system initialized on March 22 had already captured the rapid growth of El Niño development in its Nino3.4 index predictions.

This will result in precipitation disparities, with significantly more rainfall in the equatorial central-eastern Pacific, most of South America, southern North America, and central Africa, but significantly less in most of Australia, the Maritime Continent, and southwestern Asia.

Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity forecasts show that TC activity in June is expected to be characterized by exceptionally active formation, frequent nearshore paths, and increased landfalls. Influenced by large-scale circulation and sea surface temperature anomalies, about 4 tropical cyclones are predicted to form over the western North Pacific, doubling the historical average, while the Accumulated Cyclonic Energy (ACE), which reflects the overall destructive potential of TCs, is expected to be 27.2% higher than normal. In terms of track probability, tropical cyclone tracks are predicted to be more frequent in the South China Sea and most coastal areas of China. Due to the influence of these frequent and nearshore-approaching track characteristics, the number of tropical cyclones landing in China in June is expected to increase by 9.20% compared to normal.

Based on the team's self-developed atmospheric river identification and tracking algorithm, PanLu 2.0, the global atmospheric rivers for June 2026 have been extracted. According to the global distribution probability forecast, moderate-to-high-level atmospheric rivers are highly probable over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Notably, the cross-Pacific atmospheric rivers, influenced by anomalous cyclonic activity in the western North Pacific, exhibit a Type1 I+P+ pattern and follow a "two-step AR connection system". This mechanism shifts the atmospheric river paths northward, affecting regions such as northern China, Japan, and Alaska. The relevant mechanism has been elaborated in the team's previous study (Song et al. 2026).

Reference：Song, Y., Lu, M., & Zhao, Y. (2026). Indo–western Pacific tropical heating anomalies regulate the cross-Pacific atmospheric river highways during boreal summer. Geophysical Research Letters, 53, e2025GL120489. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL120489

These forecasts are derived from the objective prediction methods of the SEPRESS team. The associated products represent scientific and technological outcomes intended for technical reference in disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. They should not be used as the sole basis for decision-making. Further tracking and updated forecasts are strongly recommended.

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The above monthly TC outlook is based on the SEPRESS Global Climate Seamless Prediction System. SEPRESS, or Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environments, is a global initiative led by the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) that translates scientific advancements in weather-to-climate (or, subseasonal-to-seasonal) prediction into practical, tailored solutions to enhance global climate resilience and sustainability. The initiative, endorsed by UNESCO, aims to bridge the gap between science and society by fostering partnerships and delivering actionable outcomes to support the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. The SEPRESS team comprises hydrometeorologists and modelers from the HKUST, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Beijing Normal University.

Text and Figures contributed by: QIAN Siyu, Dipendra LAMICHHANE, SONG Yurong, ZHOU Qinyao